2023 was a divisive year for carbon credits, fracturing the developing market in two. In response to surging interest in the natural capital market from investors, we launched the UK’s first forward pricing curve for high-quality carbon credits, the Stockdale-White Curve. While interest in the natural capital sector grew, 2023 also saw a series of high-profile controversies challenging the voluntary carbon market. The subsequent loss of trust in the market saw the value fall from $1.9 billion in 2022 to $0.7 billion in 2023.
The Stockdale-White Curve was developed out of necessity—a response to the persistent inertia within voluntary carbon markets and a deliberate step toward creating one of the tools necessary to make the market for natural capital. As environmental degradation accelerated and biodiversity declined, markets were stalling, stakeholders were hesitating, and institutional confidence was faltering. The credibility gap between global urgency and market action was growing untenably wide.
Our aim in developing the Curve was not to produce a flawless forecast, but to begin a discussion around the future of UK carbon prices and to build confidence in the investability of the market. We recognise that nobody can predict the future. We’re all guessing, and we at Oxygen Conservation are clearly biased about the development of the natural capital economy. What the Curve aimed to provide was an initial approach to projecting carbon prices, one that aimed to generate a provocation grounded in both optimism and evidence, and ultimately, clarify the investability and future scale of the UK’s natural capital economy.
The Stockdale-White Curve projected that the price of high quality, UK-based carbon credits would reach £60 by 2025, £150 by 2030, and a high point of £500 by 2050, making investment in UK nature-based solutions financially rewarding, unlocking significant volumes of private capital, and creating the UK’s biggest alternative asset class, with the associated systems, processes, and intellectual property being the next big export for UK PLC. These estimates, considered bold at the time, are now increasingly credible. In 2025, the UK market witnessed a breakthrough £100/tonne transaction, a valuation that exceeded our projections and reinforced our thesis that robust demand exists for high-quality, verifiable credits that deliver genuine positive impact.
However, the Curve was never just about predicting prices. It was intended to be a catalyst for confidence and a statement of belief: that investments in UK nature restoration can and should be financially rewarding, provided they deliver meaningful environmental and social impact. Properly validated carbon credits can become a new form of climate currency, a true real asset class, one that restores trust, attracts institutional capital, and enables systemic environmental change.
Predictably, our model drew scrutiny. Some organisations adopted it as a pricing benchmark. Others critiqued its assumptions. This is precisely what we intended. Challenging the status quo is essential in a field shaped by volatility, policy uncertainty, and fragmented data. Criticism and healthy debate drive refinement, and refinement builds resilience.
The 2025 Oxygen Conservation Carbon Curve
Eighteen months later and the Curve has evolved, including its name, reflecting an evolution of the project. As more people have joined us, bringing expertise, energy, and challenge, they’ve helped evolve our thinking and push the Curve into a new phase. That shift prompted a rebrand: The Oxygen Conservation Carbon Curve. A name that better reflects both the collective effort behind it and the values that drive our work.
We are updating and republishing the Curve now because the landscape has changed significantly. Emissions are still rising, but institutional actors are re-engaging with carbon markets. Integrity initiatives are gaining traction. The groundwork is being laid for nature-based solutions to enter mainstream asset allocation. Meanwhile, Oxygen Conservation has deployed over £125 million, acquiring 43,000+ acres to implement transformative restoration strategies across diverse UK geographies.
What the new Curve reflects is a fundamental divergence of the UK from the wider global carbon market. While the global market has seen a loss of trust, falling credibility, and declining volumes, the UK has seen steady growth year on year as buyers are drawn to its commitment to the highest quality standards. Within the UK market, we are also seeing fragmentation, as buyers increasingly pay to secure the highest quality and most impactful credits. The emergence of a new class of premium-quality credits is redefining what is possible in the carbon market and changing perceptions of what a carbon credit is.
We remain convinced that the UK can become the epicentre of a nature-based investment paradigm—akin to what Silicon Valley became for technology. The Stockdale-Winter Curve is our signal to global markets: high-quality, transparent, UK-based carbon credits have arrived, and they are investable at an institutional scale.
While we do not claim to predict the future with precision, we assert that shaping it is within our collective grasp. The Curve is not merely a speculative graph (or several) – it is a strategic framework, an intellectual invitation, and a rallying cry for capital to be directed toward regenerative outcomes.
This is more than a projection. It’s a demarcation of intent. A visual articulation of belief in nature’s financial, social, and ecological value. And a reminder that courage in forecasting can lead to courage in action. The Oxygen Conservation Carbon Curve is our call to action—for investors to lead, for policymakers to enable, and for nature to win. It’s time to move capital, shift norms, and back nature like our future depends on it—because it does. Let this be the decade we price carbon properly, fund restoration bravely, and finally, finally, make nature count.